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Export Instability And Economic Growth

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  • Peter B. Kenen
  • Constantine S. Voivodas

Abstract

Does export instability interfere with economic development? Work by McBean answers in the negative. He finds no systematic relationship between instability and economic growth. This paper asks three questions about McBean's work: (1) Has he measured the relevant variables appropriately? (2) Were special factors at work in the period he studied (1950‐58) ? (3) Was his sample of countries representative? It presents a broader statistical analysis, using a different index of instability, two decades of data, and more countries. In general, the findings do not contradict McBean. But calculations using different time periods (1950‐66 and 1956‐67) do produce some evidence of interference. Furthermore, the paper finds one new relationship—a strong inverse connection between instability and the level of investment in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Kenen & Constantine S. Voivodas, 1972. "Export Instability And Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 791-804, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:25:y:1972:i:4:p:791-804
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1972.tb01082.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Montague J. Lord, 1980. "Commodity Export Instability and Growth in the Latin American Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Markets and Latin American Development: A Modeling Approach, pages 213-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sule Ozler & James Harrigan, 1988. "Export Instability and Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 486, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Earl L. Grinols & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1991. "Stochastic Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Determination in a Small Open Economy with Risk Averse Optimizing Agents," NBER Working Papers 3651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jere R. Behrman & Pranee Tinakorn, 1980. "The UNCTAD Integrated Program: Earnings Stabilization through Buffer Stocks for Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Markets and Latin American Development: A Modeling Approach, pages 245-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter Wilson, 1983. "The Consequences of Export Instability for Developing Countries — A Reappraisal," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 39-59, January.
    6. Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280.
    7. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary & Amjad Naveed, 2003. "Export Earnings, Capital Instability and Economic Growth in South Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 65-89, Jan-June.
    8. F. G. Adams & J. R. Behrman & M. Lasaga, 1981. "Commodity Exports and NIEO Proposals for Buffer Stocks and Compensatory Finance: Implications for Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: Export Diversification and the New Protectionism: The Experiences of Latin America, pages 48-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David Brodsky & Gary Sampson, 1979. "Export instability and economic structure: An east-west comparison," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 115(4), pages 745-755, December.

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