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Long Memory, Realized Volatility and Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Richard T. Baillie
  • Fabio Calonaci
  • Dooyeon Cho
  • Seunghwa Rho

Abstract

The presence of long memory in realized volatility (RV) is a widespread stylized fact. The origins of long memory in RV have been attributed to jumps, structural breaks, contemporaneous aggregation, nonlinearities, or pure long memory. An important development has been the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model and its extensions. This article assesses the separate roles of fractionally integrated long memory models, extended HAR models and time varying parameter HAR models. We find that the presence of the long memory parameter is often important in addition to the HAR models.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard T. Baillie & Fabio Calonaci & Dooyeon Cho & Seunghwa Rho, 2019. "Long Memory, Realized Volatility and Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 609-628, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:40:y:2019:i:4:p:609-628
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12470
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    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, Andrew & Palumbo, Dario, 2023. "Score-driven models for realized volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    2. Sapkota, Niranjan, 2022. "News-based sentiment and bitcoin volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Cho, Dooyeon, 2021. "On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 511-530.
    4. Li, Jia & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Shi, Shuping & Yu, Jun, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 8-2022, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    5. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Uwe Hassler & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2019. "Forecasting under Long Memory and Nonstationarity," Papers 1910.08202, arXiv.org.
    7. Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2023. "Volatility Puzzle: Long Memory or Antipersistency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 3861-3883, July.
    8. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
    9. Papantonis Ioannis & Rompolis Leonidas S. & Tzavalis Elias & Agapitos Orestis, 2023. "Augmenting the Realized-GARCH: the role of signed-jumps, attenuation-biases and long-memory effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 171-198, April.
    10. Dooyeon Cho & Seunghwa Rho, 2022. "On asymmetric volatility effects in currency markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2149-2177, May.
    11. Constandina Koki & Loukia Meligkotsidou & Ioannis Vrontos, 2020. "Forecasting under model uncertainty: Non‐homogeneous hidden Markov models with Pòlya‐Gamma data augmentation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 580-598, July.
    12. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho & Seunghwa Rho, 2023. "Approximating long-memory processes with low-order autoregressions: Implications for modeling realized volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2911-2937, June.
    14. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon & Rho, Seunghwa, 2024. "Combining Long and Short Memory in Time Series Models: the Role of Asymptotic Correlations of the MLEs," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 88-112.
    15. Takuo Higashide & Katsuyuki Tanaka & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2021. "New Dataset for Forecasting Realized Volatility: Is the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location Dataset Helpful for Expansion of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model in the Japanese Stock Market?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Papers 2105.02325, arXiv.org.
    17. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 529-558, December.

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