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Forecasting Global Ice Volume

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  • H. Joseph Newton
  • Gerald R. North
  • Thomas J. Crowley

Abstract

. Forecasts and associated probability limits of total ice volume for the next 100 000 years are found based upon a historical record of 440 000 years of oxygen‐18 from deep sea cores. The forecasts are found using two different time series models, one based on the assumption that ice volume contains deterministic sinusoids, and one assuming that the record contains ‘disturbed periodicities’, i.e. the sinusoids do not have the same cycle length and amplitude from one cycle to another. The results for the two models are seen to be very similar, with both predicting a small probability for a future ice volume event to be as large as the last ice age, which was one of the largest glaciations of the last 2 million years.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Joseph Newton & Gerald R. North & Thomas J. Crowley, 1991. "Forecasting Global Ice Volume," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 255-265, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:12:y:1991:i:3:p:255-265
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1991.tb00081.x
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