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Alarm Characteristics For A Flood Warning System With Deterministic Components

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  • Stig‐Inge Beckman
  • Jan Holst
  • Georg Lindgren

Abstract

. A method for evaluating a predictor‐based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a ‘deterministic’ component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold:it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water‐level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the catastrophe.

Suggested Citation

  • Stig‐Inge Beckman & Jan Holst & Georg Lindgren, 1990. "Alarm Characteristics For A Flood Warning System With Deterministic Components," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:11:y:1990:i:1:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1990.tb00038.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Halfdan Grage & Jan Holst & Georg Lindgren & Mietek Saklak, 2010. "Level Crossing Prediction with Neural Networks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 623-645, December.

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