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An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Growth on Short‐Term Changes in Loss Ratios

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  • Michael M. Barth
  • David L. Eckles

Abstract

Given the use of premium growth as a risk measure in regulatory and private risk assessment models, the impact of growth on underwriting profitability is an important question. Our results show a negative relationship between premium growth and changes in loss ratios, suggesting that premium growth alone does not necessarily result in higher underwriting risk. Further, there is a positive relationship between claim count growth and changes in loss ratios, suggesting that claim count growth may be a preferred measure of underwriting risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael M. Barth & David L. Eckles, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Growth on Short‐Term Changes in Loss Ratios," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 867-885, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:76:y:2009:i:4:p:867-885
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01323.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoying Xie & Charles Lee & Martin Eling, 0. "Cyber insurance offering and performance: an analysis of the U.S. cyber insurance market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-47.
    2. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo & Schaper, Philipp, 2017. "Get the Balance Right: A Simultaneous Equation Model to Analyze Growth, Profitability, and Safety," Working Papers on Finance 1716, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    4. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2018. "Business failure, efficiency, and volatility: Evidence from the European insurance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-76.
    5. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Philipp Schaper, 2022. "The magic triangle: growth, profitability and safety in the insurance industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 321-348, April.
    6. Martin Eling & Dieter Kiesenbauer, 2012. "Does Surplus Participation Reflect Market Discipline? An Analysis of the German Life Insurance Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 159-185, December.
    7. Xiaoying Xie & Charles Lee & Martin Eling, 2020. "Cyber insurance offering and performance: an analysis of the U.S. cyber insurance market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 45(4), pages 690-736, October.

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