IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v76y2009i1p109-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long‐Term Disability Claims Rates and the Consumption‐to‐Wealth Ratio

Author

Listed:
  • H. J. Smoluk

Abstract

A framework for linking long‐term disability (LTD) claims rates to the macro‐economy using the consumption‐to‐wealth ratio is developed from financial economic and option theories. Financial economic theory suggests that the consumption‐to‐wealth ratio reflects consumption smoothing and reveals expectations about future wealth. For individuals contemplating submitting an LTD claim, the expected payoff to exercising this insurance option is a function of their expectations about their future wealth. The lower (higher) their expectations about future wealth, the higher (lower) the expected payoff, and the higher (lower) claims rates are likely to be. Using cointegration analysis, we find that LTD claims rates and the consumption‐to‐wealth ratio are linked in a long‐run equilibrium. When the consumption‐to‐wealth ratio is high (low), LTD claims rates are low (high).

Suggested Citation

  • H. J. Smoluk, 2009. "Long‐Term Disability Claims Rates and the Consumption‐to‐Wealth Ratio," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 109-131, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:109-131
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01291.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01291.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01291.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    2. Alan Greenspan & James E. Kennedy, 2005. "Estimates of home mortgage originations, repayments, and debt on one-to-four-family residences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    4. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2006. "The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 71-96, Summer.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, June.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    10. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    11. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    12. Johansen, Søren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 740-778, October.
    13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    14. Marjorie Flavin, 1993. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 651-666.
    15. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean Pinquet & Montserrat Guillén & Mercedes Ayuso, 2011. "Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 983-1002, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H.J. Smoluk & John Voyer, 2014. "The spirit of capitalism among the income classes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 1-9, January.
    2. Smoluk, H.J. & Voyer, John, 2014. "The spirit of capitalism among the income classes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-9.
    3. Smoluk, H.J. & Bennett, James, 2008. "Evaluating stock returns with time-varying risk aversion driven by trend deviations from the consumption-to-wealth ratio: An analysis conditional on income levels," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 261-279, December.
    4. H.J. Smoluk & James Bennett, 2008. "Evaluating stock returns with time‐varying risk aversion driven by trend deviations from the consumption‐to‐wealth ratio: An analysis conditional on income levels," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 261-279, December.
    5. Dreyer, Johannes K. & Schneider, Johannes & Smith, William T., 2013. "Saving-based asset-pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3704-3715.
    6. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    7. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    9. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    10. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth, and asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 606-622, September.
    11. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.
    12. Paul P.J. Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2008. "Aggregate Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Some International Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, May.
    13. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    14. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    15. Grammig, Joachim & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Asset pricing with a reference level of consumption: New evidence from the cross-section of stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 113-123, August.
    16. Thomas Nitschka, 2005. "The U.S. consumption-wealth ratio and foreign stock markets: International evidence for return predictability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    18. Søren Johansen, 2014. "Times Series: Cointegration," Discussion Papers 14-24, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    19. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:109-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.