IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v73y2006i3p489-515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Vidal‐Meliá
  • Inmaculada Domínguez‐Fabián
  • José Enrique Devesa‐Carpio

Abstract

This article aims to quantify the aggregate subjective economic risk to which beneficiaries would be exposed if a retirement pension system based on notional account philosophy were introduced. We use scenario generation techniques to make projections of the factors that determine the real expected internal rate of return (IRR) and the expected replacement rate (RR) for the beneficiary according to six retirement formulae based on the most widely accepted rates or indices. We then apply the model to the case of Spain. Our projections are based on Herce and Alonso's macroeconomic scenario 2000–2050 (2000) and include information about the past performance of the indices and the time period the forecast is to cover. The results of the IRR calculation—average value, standard deviation, and value‐at‐risk (VaR)—are analyzed both in objective terms and for different degrees of participants' risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vidal‐Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez‐Fabián & José Enrique Devesa‐Carpio, 2006. "Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 489-515, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:73:y:2006:i:3:p:489-515
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00185.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00185.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00185.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Tumbarello, Patrizia & Palacios, Robert, 1999. "Pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A window of opportunity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-44, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    3. Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20533, The World Bank.
    4. Mitchell Orenstein & Robert Holzmann & Michal Rutkowski, 2003. "Pension Reform in Europe : Process and Progress," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    2. José Enrique Devesa Carpio & Mar Devesa Carpio & Robert Meney Gaya & Amparo Nagore García & Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián & Borja Encinas Goenechea, 2012. "Equidad y sostenibilidad como objetivos ante la reforma del sistema contributivo de pensiones de jubilación," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 201(2), pages 9-38, June.
    3. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabián & María del Carmen Boado-Penas, "undated". "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDCs): Solvency and Risk; Application to the Case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 226, FEDEA.
    4. Anne M. Garvey & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2021. "From “Table 29” to the actuarial balance sheet: is it really that big a leap?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2021-05, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2003. "What are NDC Pension Systems? What Do They Bring to Reform Strategies?," MEA discussion paper series 03042, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Richard Hinz & Robert Holzmann, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7336.
    3. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Pension reform, savings behavior and corporate governance," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-48, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010. "Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
    6. David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7427.
    7. Marhanum Che Mohd Salleh & Mohammad Abdul Matin Chowdhury & Siti Salwani Razali & Nan Nurhidayu Megat Laksana, 2020. "Retirement Schemes, its Challenges and Ways of Reformation: A Cross-Border Study," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 507-520, September.
    8. World Bank, 2005. "Russia : Fiscal Costs of Structural Reforms," World Bank Publications - Reports 8540, The World Bank Group.
    9. Mar Devesa Carpio & José E. Devesa Carpio, 2009. "El coste y el desequilibrio financiero-actuarial de los sistemas de reparto. El caso del sistema Español," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    11. Hartlapp, Miriam, 2006. "Über Politiklernen lernen: Überlegungen zur Europäischen Beschäftigungsstrategie," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment SP I 2006-114, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Angelo Vito Panaro, 2024. "Policy convergence in authoritarian regimes: A comparative analysis of welfare state trajectories in post‐Soviet countries," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 41(6), pages 1017-1043, November.
    14. A Börsch-Supan & A Brugiavini, 2001. "Savings: the policy debate in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 116-143, Spring.
    15. Olivia S. Mitchell, "undated". "Developments in Pensions," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-4, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Aiyer, Sri-Ram, 1997. "Pension reform in Latin America : quick fixes or sustainable reform?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1865, The World Bank.
    17. Pinotti Paolo, 2009. "Financial Development and Pay-As-You-Go Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Namkee Ahn & Javier Alonso-Meseguer & Juan Ramón García, "undated". "A Projection of Spanish Pension System under Demographic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2005-20, FEDEA.
    19. Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000. "Regulating private pension funds’ structure, performance and investments: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 14753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mejra Festić & Jože Mencinger, 2009. "The Perspective of Pension System Reforms in the New Member States," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(4), pages 291-308.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:73:y:2006:i:3:p:489-515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.