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Forecasting Medical Net Discount Rates

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  • Bradley T. Ewing
  • Michael J. Piette
  • James E. Payne

Abstract

Determining the present value of future medical costs is an important issue for a variety of public and private entities. This article examines the time‐series properties of medical net discount rates and considers the implications for forecasting. The article provides evidence that the standard autoregressive moving average forecasting model may be improved by modeling the time‐varying volatility characteristics of the medical net discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley T. Ewing & Michael J. Piette & James E. Payne, 2003. "Forecasting Medical Net Discount Rates," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 85-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:70:y:2003:i:1:p:85-95
    DOI: 10.1111/1539-6975.00049
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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Enja Erker, 2024. "Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(1), pages 39-56.

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