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Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy

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  • Brigitte Waldorf
  • Rachel Franklin

Abstract

The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.

Suggested Citation

  • Brigitte Waldorf & Rachel Franklin, 2002. "Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 549-578, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:42:y:2002:i:3:p:549-578
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9787.00272
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    1. Lívia Madeira Triaca & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro & César Augusto Oviedo Tejada, 2021. "Mosquitoes, birth rates and regional spillovers: Evidence from the Zika epidemic in Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 795-813, June.
    2. Elena Kotyrlo, 2013. "Stationarity conditions for the spatial first-order and serial second-order model," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 19-29, March.
    3. Elena Kotyrlo, 2017. "Fertility and commuting: evidence based on first-birth rates of young working women," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 135-163, June.
    4. Kotyrlo, Elena, 2016. "Space-time dynamics of fertility and commuting," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 78-95.
    5. Dentinho, Tomaz Ponce & Reid, Neil, 2021. "Urban growth models. An application to American cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Marcia Castro, 2007. "Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 477-509, December.
    7. Jesus Rodrigo-Comino & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    10. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.
    12. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Kotyrlo, Elena, 2023. "Daily labor mobility and the timing of entry into motherhood," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 70, pages 55-71.
    14. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.

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