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Modelling the spread in space and time of an airborne plant disease

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  • Samuel Soubeyrand
  • Leonhard Held
  • Michael Höhle
  • Ivan Sache

Abstract

Summary. A spatiotemporal model is developed to analyse epidemics of airborne plant diseases which are spread by spores. The observations consist of measurements of the severity of disease at different times, different locations in the horizontal plane and different heights in the vegetal cover. The model describes the joint distribution of the occurrence and the severity of the disease. The three‐dimensional dispersal of spores is modelled by combining a horizontal and a vertical dispersal function. Maximum likelihood combined with a parametric bootstrap is suggested to estimate the model parameters and the uncertainty that is attached to them. The spatiotemporal model is used to analyse a yellow rust epidemic in a wheatfield. In the analysis we pay particular attention to the selection and the estimation of the dispersal functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Soubeyrand & Leonhard Held & Michael Höhle & Ivan Sache, 2008. "Modelling the spread in space and time of an airborne plant disease," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(3), pages 253-272, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:57:y:2008:i:3:p:253-272
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00612.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Landry, C. & Bonnot, F. & Ravigné, V. & Carlier, J. & Rengifo, D. & Vaillant, J. & Abadie, C., 2017. "A foliar disease simulation model to assist the design of new control methods against black leaf streak disease of banana," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 383-397.
    2. Martignoni, Maria M. & Garnier, Jimmy & Hart, Miranda M. & Tyson, Rebecca C., 2020. "Investigating the impact of the mycorrhizal inoculum on the resident fungal community and on plant growth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    3. Sifat A Moon & Lee W Cohnstaedt & D Scott McVey & Caterina M Scoglio, 2019. "A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, March.

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