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Estimating the transmission probability of human immunodeficiency virus in injecting drug users in Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Michael G. Hudgens
  • Ira. M. Longini Jr
  • M. Elizabeth Halloran
  • Kachit Choopanya
  • Suphak Vanichseni
  • Dwip Kitayaporn
  • Timothy D. Mastro
  • Philip A. Mock

Abstract

We estimate the transmission probability for the human immunodeficiency virus from seroconversion data of a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) in Thailand. The transmission probability model developed accounts for interval censoring and incorporates each IDU's reported frequency of needle sharing and injecting acts. Using maximum likelihood methods, the per needle sharing act transmission probability estimate between infectious and susceptible IDUs is 0.008. The effects of covariates, disease dynamics, mismeasured exposure information and the uncertainty of the disease prevalence on the transmission probability estimate are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Hudgens & Ira. M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Kachit Choopanya & Suphak Vanichseni & Dwip Kitayaporn & Timothy D. Mastro & Philip A. Mock, 2001. "Estimating the transmission probability of human immunodeficiency virus in injecting drug users in Thailand," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:50:y:2001:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9876.00216
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiy Bobashev & Sarah Mars & Nicholas Murphy & Clinton Dreisbach & William Zule & Daniel Ciccarone, 2019. "Heroin type, injecting behavior, and HIV transmission. A simulation model of HIV incidence and prevalence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Barbra A. Richardson & James P. Hughes, 2003. "Modeling Breastmilk Infectivity in HIV-1 Infected Mothers," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 179-185, March.

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