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The Dead of the Gulag: An Experiment in Statistical Investigation

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  • Stephen Blyth

Abstract

The estimation of the number of deaths in the Gulag is discussed. A Bayesian framework for analysing available data is constructed. Three demographic works are reviewed; information from them is captured in a prior distribution on the number of deaths. Non‐demographic estimates are incorporated by using the supra‐Bayesian approach. This is a method of subjectively combining information from various sources; conceptual and technical details are described. The result of the analysis is a posterior probability distribution; the obtained posterior 95% credible interval of the number of deaths is (9.7 million, 16.7 million).

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  • Stephen Blyth, 1995. "The Dead of the Gulag: An Experiment in Statistical Investigation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 44(3), pages 307-321, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:44:y:1995:i:3:p:307-321
    DOI: 10.2307/2986039
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    Cited by:

    1. Toews, Gerhard & Vezina, Pierre-Louis, 2020. "Enemies of the people," SocArXiv gnypr, Center for Open Science.

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