IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssc/v40y1991i2p269-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Backcalculation of Flexible Linear Models of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Philip S. Rosenberg
  • Mitchell H. Gail

Abstract

The method of backcalculation can be used both to estimate the number of persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to project future acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence. We present a regression approach to backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. These models include step functions and splines. Because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi‐likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer. We illustrate by projecting AIDS incidence in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip S. Rosenberg & Mitchell H. Gail, 1991. "Backcalculation of Flexible Linear Models of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Curve," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 40(2), pages 269-282, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:40:y:1991:i:2:p:269-282
    DOI: 10.2307/2347592
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2347592
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2307/2347592?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wai-Yuan Tan & Si Chin Tang & Sho Rong Lee, 1998. "Estimation of HIV seroconversion and effects of age in the San Francisco homosexual population," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 85-102.
    2. Lessner, Lawrence, 1998. "Estimating HIV incidence: An ill-posed problem," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-55, March.
    3. Angela Noufaily & Paddy Farrington & Paul Garthwaite & Doyo Gragn Enki & Nick Andrews & Andre Charlett, 2016. "Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks From Laboratory Data With Reporting Delays," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 488-499, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:40:y:1991:i:2:p:269-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.