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An Extreme‐Value Model for Predicting the Results of Horse Races

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  • R. J. Henery

Abstract

Results of horse races in 1979–80 are analysed to see if the extreme‐value distribution can model the times to run horse races: horses with the same bookmakers' odds of winning are classed as one group; the distribution of times for each group is extreme‐value with location parameter β depending on the win odds; and the scale parameter 8 is common to all groups. The model predicts that the win probability p for the group is p = exp ((β0 – β)/θ) for some constant β0, and this is borne out by the data. Only the tail of the empirical distribution functions is consistent with the model; however, it is essentially this tail which determines the win probabilities, so if the aim is to do just that the model will serve a useful purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • R. J. Henery, 1984. "An Extreme‐Value Model for Predicting the Results of Horse Races," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 33(2), pages 125-133, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:33:y:1984:i:2:p:125-133
    DOI: 10.2307/2347436
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