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New Lamps for Old: An Exploratory Analysis of Running Times in Olympic Games

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  • Samprit Chatterjee
  • Sangit Chatterjee

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the winning times in the men's 100, 200, 400 and 800 metres run in the Olympic Games from 1900 to 1976. A non‐linear model is fitted to each of the series, and an estimate of the best attainable time for each of these events is obtained. The entire data are then analysed as two‐way classified data, to examine the effect on running times of distance of the race, and the year in which the Games were held. The “year effects” will estimate improvements in techniques and training methods over the years. The effect of the altitude of the meet on reported times is also studied. Two methods of analysis—mean and median fitting— are presented for comparative purposes. The times for these events in the 1980 Olympics are predicted using the fitted models and are compared with the observed times. A set of predictions for the 1984 Olympics is provided for future comparison.

Suggested Citation

  • Samprit Chatterjee & Sangit Chatterjee, 1982. "New Lamps for Old: An Exploratory Analysis of Running Times in Olympic Games," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 31(1), pages 14-22, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:31:y:1982:i:1:p:14-22
    DOI: 10.2307/2347070
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephenson Alec G. & Tawn Jonathan A., 2013. "Determining the Best Track Performances of All Time Using a Conceptual Population Model for Athletics Records," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 67-76, March.

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