IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssc/v30y1981i2p132-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biothermal Development: A Model for Predicting the Distribution of Emergence Times of Diapausing Heliothis Armigera

Author

Listed:
  • R. B. Cunningham
  • T. Lewis
  • A. G. L. Wilson

Abstract

Laboratory data on the time to termination of diapause and the subsequent time to emergence of the Heliothis armigera moth have been analysed in relation to temperature. Excluding the data observed at 18 °C, the times to termination of diapause follow a geometric distribution and the subsequent times to emergence are approximately uniform over a small range of about three days. Based on these results a model has been developed for the prediction of the distribution of moth emergence times in a situation of continuously varying temperatures, i.e. in the field situation. The predictions compare well with the observed emergence in each of the five years 1974–78. This study provides empirical evidence to support the theory that break of diapause is a dual process; potentiation of development is a random exponential process and development itself is a deterministic process. Both mechanisms are assumed to be dependent only on temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • R. B. Cunningham & T. Lewis & A. G. L. Wilson, 1981. "Biothermal Development: A Model for Predicting the Distribution of Emergence Times of Diapausing Heliothis Armigera," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 30(2), pages 132-140, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:30:y:1981:i:2:p:132-140
    DOI: 10.2307/2346382
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2346382
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2307/2346382?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:30:y:1981:i:2:p:132-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.