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The predictive power of subjective probabilities: probabilistic and deterministic polling in the Dutch 2017 election

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  • Jochem de Bresser
  • Arthur van Soest

Abstract

The paper evaluates the predictive validity of stated intentions for actual behaviour. In the context of the 2017 Dutch parliamentary election, we compare how well polls based on probabilistic and deterministic questions line up with subsequent votes. Our empirical strategy is built around a randomized experiment in a representative panel. Respondents were either asked which party they will vote for or were asked to allocate probabilities of voting for each party. The results show that probabilities predict individual behaviour better than deterministic statements for a large majority of respondents. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in the predictive power of subjective probabilities. We find evidence that they work better for those with higher probability numeracy, even though probability numeracy was measured 8 years earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochem de Bresser & Arthur van Soest, 2019. "The predictive power of subjective probabilities: probabilistic and deterministic polling in the Dutch 2017 election," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(2), pages 443-466, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:182:y:2019:i:2:p:443-466
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12409
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    Cited by:

    1. Romuald Meango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger, 2023. "Identification of Ex ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities: an Application to Preferences for Public-sector Jobs," Papers 2303.03009, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Romuald Meango, 2023. "Using Probabilistic Stated Preference Analyses to Understand Actual Choices," Papers 2307.13966, arXiv.org.
    3. Poinas, François & Méango, Romuald, 2023. "The (Option-)Value of Overstaying," TSE Working Papers 23-1478, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Juerg Schweri, 2021. "Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 544-563, March.
    5. Romauld Méango, 2023. "Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities," Economics Series Working Papers 1007, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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