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Political generations and partisanship in the UK, 1964–1997

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  • James Tilley

Abstract

Summary. Political partisanship is often claimed to be influenced by generational and life‐cycle processes, with both being cited as the factor that is responsible for higher levels of Conservative identifications among older voters. Given the existence of over‐time change it is difficult to assess the validity of these claims as even with repeated survey data any model is underidentified. This paper uses smoothed additive models to isolate and examine the non‐linear component of the generational effect. Some identifying assumptions are presented to try to assess the extent to which linear aging or generational processes are responsible for the increased Conservatism of the elderly. The advantage of the smoothed additive models is their ability to highlight non‐linear effects, however, and this paper shows that regardless of linear trends people who entered the electorate during Conservative Parliaments are more likely to be Conservative partisan identifiers many years later. The introduction of a multiplicative term linking age to period effects supports this hypothesis by showing that younger people are more susceptible to the influence of period effects.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tilley, 2002. "Political generations and partisanship in the UK, 1964–1997," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(1), pages 121-135, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:165:y:2002:i:1:p:121-135
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00628
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Stockemer & Aksel Sundström, 2019. "Women's Representation across Different Generations: A Longitudinal Analysis of the European Parliament," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 823-837, July.
    2. Kroh, Martin, 2014. "Growth trajectories in the strength of party identification: The legacy of autocratic regimes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33, pages 90-101.
    3. Tak Wing Chan & Matthew Clayton, 2006. "Should the Voting Age be Lowered to Sixteen? Normative and Empirical Considerations," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54(3), pages 533-558, October.
    4. Sunde, Uwe & Kotschy, Rainer, 2022. "Does Demography Determine Democratic Attitudes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Roberto Stefan Foa & Ronald Inglehart & Eduard Ponarin & Tatiana Karabchuk, 2018. "Set-Point Theory and Societal Collapse: The Case of Russia," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1639-1656, August.
    6. Jackson, Robert & Rainey, Carlisle, 2023. "Generation Effects on Americans’ Symbolic Ideology and Attitudes Toward the Economic Role of Government," SocArXiv ck7de, Center for Open Science.
    7. Peter Howley & Muhammad Waqas, 2024. "Identity, immigration, and subjective well-being: why are natives so sharply divided on immigration issues?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-21.

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