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Bayesian Analysis of DNA Profiling Data in Forensic Identification Applications

Author

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  • Lindsey A. Foreman
  • Adrian F. M. Smith
  • Ian W. Evett

Abstract

The utilization of DNA evidence in cases of forensic identification has become widespread over the last few years. The strength of this evidence against an individual standing trial is typically presented in court in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) or its reciprocal (the profile match probability). The value of this LR will vary according to the nature of the genetic relationship between the accused and other possible perpetrators of the crime in the population. This paper develops ideas and methods for analysing data and evaluating LRs when the evidence is based on short tandem repeat profiles, with special emphasis placed on a Bayesian approach. These are then applied in the context of a particular quadruplex profiling system used for routine case‐work by the UK Forensic Science Service.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsey A. Foreman & Adrian F. M. Smith & Ian W. Evett, 1997. "Bayesian Analysis of DNA Profiling Data in Forensic Identification Applications," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 429-459, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:160:y:1997:i:3:p:429-459
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.1997.00074.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Cereda, 2017. "Bayesian approach to LR assessment in case of rare type match," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 71(2), pages 141-164, May.
    2. David L. Dickinson & Sean P.A. Drummond & Jeff Dyche, 2014. "Voluntary sleep choice and its effects on Bayesian decisions: A study of two samples of college students," Working Papers 14-11, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.

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