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Political Polling: 95% Expertise and 5% Luck

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  • Robert Worcester

Abstract

The record of British election polls was good — until the general election of 1992. The Market Research Society's inquiry into the performance of the polls in 1992 found inadequacies in the implementation of the sampling system used, evidence of a late swing and some reluctance of Conservative supporters to reveal their loyalty; but it generally endorsed the principle of well‐conducted quota polling and found that variations in methodological detail had nil effect on the results. The evidence is presented and some possible future developments to counter the ‘spiral of silence’ are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Worcester, 1996. "Political Polling: 95% Expertise and 5% Luck," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(1), pages 5-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:159:y:1996:i:1:p:5-20
    DOI: 10.2307/2983464
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    Cited by:

    1. Pickup, Mark & Johnston, Richard, 2008. "Campaign trial heats as election forecasts: Measurement error and bias in 2004 presidential campaign polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 272-284.

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