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Inference in Forensic Identification

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  • David J. Balding
  • Peter Donnelly

Abstract

The problem of quantifying the weight of evidence in forensic identification is addressed. The essence of the problem is abstracted in a simple paradigm, the analysis of which yields valuable insights and highlights important distinctions. A special case of this analysis gives a resolution of the so‐called island problem. The paradigm is extended to assess the effects of several features which may be important in practical situations, such as possible alibis, heterogeneous populations of potential suspects and informative protocols for finding suspects. The analyses of the paper clarify several issues pertaining to the weight of evidence associated with matching deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) profiles and raise some new concerns. In addition, established concerns regarding the incorrect interpretation of probabilistic evidence by juries are discussed in the DNA profile context.

Suggested Citation

  • David J. Balding & Peter Donnelly, 1995. "Inference in Forensic Identification," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(1), pages 21-40, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:158:y:1995:i:1:p:21-40
    DOI: 10.2307/2983402
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    Cited by:

    1. C. J. Skinner, 2007. "The probability of identification: applying ideas from forensic statistics to disclosure risk assessment," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 195-212, January.
    2. David J. Balding, 2002. "The DN A Database Search Controversy," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 241-244, March.
    3. Chung, Yuk-Ka & Fung, Wing K. & Hu, Yue-Qing, 2010. "Familial database search on two-person mixture," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2046-2051, August.
    4. Mehlum, Halvor, 2003. "A Finer Point in Forensic Identification," Memorandum 30/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. Skinner, Chris J., 2007. "The probability of identification: applying ideas from forensic statistics to disclosure risk assessment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 39105, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Anders Stockmarr, 1999. "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 671-677, September.

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