IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v41y2003i4p653-679.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Clement
  • Richard Frankel
  • Jeffrey Miller

Abstract

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations. Specifically, we find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response. Overall, the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Clement & Richard Frankel & Jeffrey Miller, 2003. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 653-679, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:41:y:2003:i:4:p:653-679
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.00119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00119
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-679X.00119?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clarkson, Peter M & Thompson, Rex, 1990. "Empirical Estimates of Beta When Investors Face Estimation Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 431-453, June.
    2. Atiase, Rk, 1985. "Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, And Security Price Behavior Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    4. Liu, J & Thomas, J, 2000. "Stock returns and accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 71-101.
    5. Grant, Eb, 1980. "Market Implications Of Differential Amounts Of Interim Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 255-268.
    6. Patell, Jm, 1976. "Corporate Forecasts Of Earnings Per Share And Stock-Price Behavior - Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-276.
    7. Lev, B & Penman, Sh, 1990. "Voluntary Forecast Disclosure, Nondisclosure, And Stock-Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 49-76.
    8. Barry, Christopher B. & Brown, Stephen J., 1985. "Differential Information and Security Market Equilibrium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 407-422, December.
    9. Diamond, Douglas W & Verrecchia, Robert E, 1991. "Disclosure, Liquidity, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1325-1359, September.
    10. Ajinkya, Bb & Gift, Mj, 1984. "Corporate Managers Earnings Forecasts And Symmetrical Adjustments Of Market Expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 425-444.
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    12. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Collection of information about publicly traded firms : Theory and evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 183-206, July.
    13. Trueman, Brett, 1986. "Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-71, March.
    14. Freeman, Robert N., 1987. "The association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 195-228, July.
    15. Brown, Ld & Kim, Kj, 1991. "Timely Aggregate Analyst Forecasts As Better Proxies For Market Earnings Expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 382-385.
    16. Verrecchia, Robert E., 1983. "Discretionary disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 179-194, April.
    17. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 111-138, July.
    18. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Gomes, Armando & Gorton, Gary & Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "SEC Regulation Fair Disclosure, information, and the cost of capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 300-334, June.
    4. Frankel, Richard & Li, Xu, 2004. "Characteristics of a firm's information environment and the information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 229-259, June.
    5. Stephen P. Baginski & John M. Hassell & Michael D. Kimbrough, 2004. "Why Do Managers Explain Their Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Skinner, Douglas J. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2009. "Earnings guidance and market uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 90-109, October.
    7. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    8. Stephan Hollander & Maarten Pronk & Erik Roelofsen, 2010. "Does Silence Speak? An Empirical Analysis of Disclosure Choices During Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 531-563, June.
    9. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    10. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    11. Kross, William J. & Ro, Byung T. & Suk, Inho, 2011. "Consistency in meeting or beating earnings expectations and management earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 37-57, February.
    12. Nikolaev, V. & van Lent, L.A.G.M., 2005. "The Endogeneity Bias in the Relation Between Cost-of-Debt Capital and Corporate Disclosure Policy," Discussion Paper 2005-67, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Fu, Renhui & Kraft, Arthur & Zhang, Huai, 2012. "Financial reporting frequency, information asymmetry, and the cost of equity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 132-149.
    14. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    15. Simon Hussain, 1998. "Lead indicator models and UK analysts' earnings forecasts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 271-280.
    16. Nikolaev, V. & van Lent, L.A.G.M., 2005. "The Endogeneity Bias in the Relation Between Cost-of-Debt Capital and Corporate Disclosure Policy," Other publications TiSEM 5960a342-0adc-4f85-bf87-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P. & Weber, Joseph, 2006. "Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 29-54, April.
    18. Nikolaev, V. & van Lent, L.A.G.M., 2005. "The endogeneity bias in the relation between cost-of-debt capital and corporate disclosure policy," Other publications TiSEM 04869b30-e8a9-4ecf-84ae-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Enrico Supino & Federico Barnabè, 2017. "Corporate Disclosure, Materiality, and Integrated Report: An Event Study Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Kross, William J. & Ro, Byung T. & Suk, Inho, 2011. "Consistency in meeting or beating earnings expectations and management earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-57.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:41:y:2003:i:4:p:653-679. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.