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Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting? The Horizon Effect

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  • OLIVIER DESSAINT
  • THIERRY FOUCAULT
  • LAURENT FRESARD

Abstract

Existing research suggests that alternative data are mainly informative about short‐term future outcomes. We show theoretically that the availability of short‐term‐oriented data can induce forecasters to optimally shift their attention from the long term to the short term because it reduces the cost of obtaining short‐term information. Consequently, the informativeness of their long‐term forecasts decreases, even though the informativeness of their short‐term forecasts increases. We test and confirm this prediction by considering how the informativeness of equity analysts' forecasts at various horizons varies over the long run and with their exposure to social media data.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Dessaint & Thierry Foucault & Laurent Fresard, 2024. "Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting? The Horizon Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2237-2287, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:79:y:2024:i:3:p:2237-2287
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13323
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    Cited by:

    1. Guy Aridor & Rafael Jiménez-Durán & Ro'ee Levy & Lena Song, 2024. "The Economics of Social Media," CESifo Working Paper Series 10934, CESifo.
    2. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Cookson, J. Anthony & izhakian, yehuda, 2022. "Do I Really Want to Hear The News? Public Information Arrival and Investor Beliefs," SocArXiv ud7yw, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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