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Equity Misvaluation and Default Options

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  • ASSAF EISDORFER
  • AMIT GOYAL
  • ALEXEI ZHDANOV

Abstract

We study whether default options are mispriced in equity values by employing a structural equity valuation model that explicitly takes into account the value of the option to default (or abandon the firm) and uses firm‐specific inputs. We implement our model on the entire cross section of stocks and identify both over‐ and underpriced equities. An investment strategy that buys undervalued stocks and shorts overvalued stocks generates an annual four‐factor alpha of about 11% for U.S. stocks. The model's performance is stronger for stocks with a higher value of the default option, such as distressed or highly volatile stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Eisdorfer & Amit Goyal & Alexei Zhdanov, 2019. "Equity Misvaluation and Default Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 845-898, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:74:y:2019:i:2:p:845-898
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12748
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    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Yannik & Heyden, Kim J. & Rock, Björn, 2022. "Corporate social responsibility and market efficiency: Evidence from ESG and misvaluation measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Yongli Li & Tianchen Wang & Baiqing Sun & Chao Liu, 2022. "Detecting the lead–lag effect in stock markets: definition, patterns, and investment strategies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    4. Bao, May Xiaoyan & Crabtree, Aaron & Morris, Marc & Wan, Huishan, 2023. "Equity misvaluation and debt markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Yang, Xiaolou & Hu, Yingyao, 2024. "Default risk and stock returns: From a perspective of measurement errors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1545-1561.
    6. Nuno Silva & Pedro Dias Moreira, 2023. "On the forecasting power of corporate sales growth determinants," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Barka, Zeineb & Hamza, Taher & Mrad, Senda, 2023. "Corporate ESG scores and equity market misvaluation: Toward ethical investor behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

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