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Real Options Models of the Firm, Capacity Overhang, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

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  • KEVIN ARETZ
  • PETER F. POPE

Abstract

We use a stochastic frontier model to obtain a stock‐level estimate of the difference between a firm's installed production capacity and its optimal capacity. We show that this “capacity overhang” estimate relates significantly negatively to the cross section of stock returns, even when controlling for popular pricing factors. The negative relation persists among small and large stocks, stocks with more or less reversible investments, and in good and bad economic states. Capacity overhang helps explain momentum and profitability anomalies, but not value and investment anomalies. Our evidence supports real options models of the firm featuring valuable divestment options.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Aretz & Peter F. Pope, 2018. "Real Options Models of the Firm, Capacity Overhang, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1363-1415, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:3:p:1363-1415
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12617
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhou, 2023. "Competition, investment reversibility, and equity risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Wang, Weilong & Wang, Jianlong & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "The impact of energy-consuming rights trading on green total factor productivity in the context of digital economy: Evidence from listed firms in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf Mohsen & Brooks, Robert, 2022. "Risk transmission from the oil market to Islamic and conventional banks in oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Yayun Ren & Jian Yu & Shuhua Xu & Jiaomei Tang & Chang Zhang, 2023. "Green Finance and Industrial Low-Carbon Transition: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Can Real Options Explain the Skewness of Stock Returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Wang, Jiaxin & Zhao, Mu & Huang, Xiang & Song, Zilong & Sun, Di, 2024. "Supply chain diffusion mechanisms for AI applications: A perspective on audit pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Wang, Hai & Chen, Hui & Ye, Shuai & Yin, Junya, 2024. "The impact of green finance on companies’ overcapacity: Evidence from green financial reform and innovation policy in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1320-1336.
    8. Andrea Gamba & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Endogenous Option Pricing," Working Papers 2202, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Wang, Zhan-ao & Zheng, Chengsi, 2022. "Is technological innovation the cure for overcapacity? Exploring mediating and moderating mechanisms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 348-361.
    10. Sudipta Basu & Eunju (Ivy) Lee, 2022. "Antecedents of and outcomes after finance committee use," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3-4), pages 491-535, March.
    11. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    12. Ang, Tze Chuan 'Chewie' & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Pham, Thu A.T. & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Firm efficiency and stock returns: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    14. Sarkar, Sudipto & Zhang, Chuanqian, 2020. "Investment and financing decisions with learning-curve technology," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Chen, Aizhen & Zhao, Dongyan & He, Chengying, 2024. "Firm digital investments and capacity utilisation: A perspective of factor inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Wang, Hai & Ye, Shuai & Chen, Hui & Yin, Junya, 2023. "The impact of carbon emission trading policy on overcapacity of companies: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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