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The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices

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  • Donald B. Keim
  • Ananth Madhavan

Abstract

Exchange seat prices are widely reported and followed as measures of market sentiment. This paper analyzes the information content of NYSE seat prices using: (1) annual seat prices from 1869 to 1998, and (2) the complete record of trades, bids and offers for the seat market from 1973 to 1994. Seat market volumes have predictive power regarding future stock market returns, consistent with a model where seat market activity is a proxy for unobserved factors affecting expected returns. We find abnormally large price movements in seats prior to October 1987, consistent with the hypothesis that seat prices capture market sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, 2000. "The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2817-2840, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:6:p:2817-2840
    DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00308
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Lance E. & Neal, Larry & White, Eugene, 2007. "The Highest Price Ever: The Great NYSE Seat Sale of 1928–1929 and Capacity Constraints," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 705-739, September.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis & Plastun, Alex, 2018. "Is market fear persistent? A long-memory analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-147.
    3. Ren, Yu & Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2019. "Balanced predictive regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 118-142.
    4. Eugene N. White, 2006. "Anticipating the Stock Market Crash of 1929: The View from the Floor of the Stock Exchange," NBER Working Papers 12661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Moser, Petra, 2012. "Taste-based discrimination evidence from a shift in ethnic preferences after WWI," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 167-188.
    6. Battalio, Robert & Hatch, Brian & Loughran, Tim, 2011. "Who benefited from the disclosure mandates of the 1964 Securities Acts Amendments?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 1047-1063, September.
    7. White, Eugene N., 2013. "Competition among the exchanges before the SEC: was the NYSE a natural hegemon?," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 29-48, April.
    8. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Emm, Ekaterina E. & Gay, Gerald D. & Ma, Han & Ren, Honglin, 2021. "The rise and breakup of the commodity exchange membership: An analysis of CBOT seat prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Choo, Lawrence, 2016. "Market competition for decision rights: An experiment based on the “Hat Puzzle Problem”," MPRA Paper 73408, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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