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The Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates

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  • Roma, Antonio
  • Torous, Walter

Abstract

This article investigates the behavior of the term structure of interest rates over the business cycle. In contrast to prior studies that measure the business cycle by the simple growth in aggregate economic activity, the authors consider the deviation of aggregate economic activity from its potentially stochastic trend. They show that incorporating both an independent trend and cyclical component in consumption improves the efficiency in estimating consumption-based asset pricing models. The authors also find that the term spread is more informative about future changes in stochastically detrended real gross domestic product (GDP) than future growth rates in real GDP. Copyright 1997 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Roma, Antonio & Torous, Walter, 1997. "The Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1519-1542, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:52:y:1997:i:4:p:1519-42
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chris Birchenhall & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
    2. Guo, Feng & McCulloch, J.H., 2017. "Heterogeneous capital and misintermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 16-41.
    3. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    4. Songzhuo LI & Fang ZHANG, 2023. "Forecasting the Government Yield Curve in China: A Cyclical Reverting Mean Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 78-90, March.
    5. Takaoka, Sumiko & McKenzie, C.R., 2006. "The impact of bank entry in the Japanese corporate bond underwriting market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 59-83, January.
    6. Hong Yan, 2009. "Estimation Uncertainty and the Equity Premium," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 243-268, September.
    7. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    8. Fernando Lefort G. & Eduardo Walker H., 2000. "The Structure of Real Interest Rates in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(2), pages 31-52, August.
    9. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
    10. Hyde, Stuart & Sherif, Mohamed, 2010. "Consumption asset pricing and the term structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 99-109, February.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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