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The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges

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  • Baur, Robert F
  • Orazem, Peter F

Abstract

This article examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market. The authors investigate the rationality, information content, and price effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts are found to be unbiased and efficient. The first forecast contains the most new information and subsequent reports become valuable only when freezes occur. Significant price movements occur in response to announced production in both Florida and California. However, the majority of price variations cannot be explained by these movements in supply. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Baur, Robert F & Orazem, Peter F, 1994. "The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 681-695, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:2:p:681-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Dutta, Shantanu & Bergen, Mark & Levy, Daniel, 2002. "Price Flexibility in Channels of Distribution: Evidence from Scanner Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(11), pages 1845-1900.
    2. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    3. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & YuQing Shen & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Do Asset Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Freshly Squeezed Evidence from the OJ Market," NBER Working Papers 9515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Shen, YuQing (Jeff) & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2007. "Do asset prices reflect fundamentals? Freshly squeezed evidence from the OJ market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 397-412, February.
    6. Covey, Theodore & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2003. "Evaluating USDA Forecasts of Farm Assets: 1986-2002," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132405, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    7. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    8. Unknown, 2004. "Agricultural Finance Markets in Transition Proceedings of The Annual Meeting of NCT-194 Hosted by the Center for the Study of Rural America, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City October 6 - 7, 2003," Research Bulletins 122103, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    9. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
    10. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-39, June.
    11. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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