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Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns

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  • Pearce, Douglas K
  • Roley, V Vance

Abstract

This paper reexamines the effects of nominal contracts on the relationship between unantici pated inflation and an individual stock's rate of return. This study differs in three main ways from previous research. First, announced i nflation data are used to examine the effects of unanticipated inflat ion. Second, a different specification is used to obtain more efficie nt estimates. Third, additional nominal contracts are considered. The empirical results indicate that time-varying firm characteristics re lated to inflation predominately determine the effect of unanticipate d inflation on a stock's return. A firm's debt-equity ratio appears t o be particularly important in determining the response. Copyright 1988 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1988. "Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 965-981, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:965-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Levinsohn, James & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K, 1990. "A Simple, Consistent Estimator for Disturbance Components in Financial Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 516-520, August.
    3. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Kiseok Lee, 1999. "Unexpected inflation, inflation uncertainty, and stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 315-328.
    5. Mahdi Sadeghi, 1992. "Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News: The Australian Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1992/061, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ross Jennings & Gustavo Maturana, 2005. "The Usefulness Of Chilean Inflation Accounting," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 8(1), pages 85-118.
    7. Reffett, Kevin L., 1995. "Arbitrage pricing and the stochastic inflation tax in a multisector monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 569-597, April.
    8. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Ciner, Cetin, 2015. "Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 12-17.
    10. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Sellin, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    12. Jay Prag, 1994. "Money Supply Announcements And Interest Sensitive Stocks," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), pages 130-140, March.
    13. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
    14. Grant McQueen & V. Vance Roley, 1990. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 3520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    17. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    18. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    19. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    20. Cetin Ciner, 2015. "Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 12-17, January.
    21. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    22. Lumpkin, Stephen A. & O'Brien, James M., 1997. "Thrift stock returns and portfolio interest rate sensitivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 341-357, July.
    23. Rajabrata Banerjee & Tony Cavoli & Ron McIver & Shannon Meng & John K. Wilson, 2023. "Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 377-395, September.
    24. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.

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