IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jcmkts/v48y2010i3p687-708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?

Author

Listed:
  • JOHN LEWIS
  • KARSTEN STAEHR

Abstract

According to the Maastricht Treaty, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have an inflation rate in excess of 1.5 per cent plus the average inflation rates in the three ‘best performing’ EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non‐increasing function of the number of EU members. A counterfactual analysis of historical data shows that the effect of enlarging the EU from 15 to 27 countries was sizeable in 2002–04 and again from 2007. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the inflation reference value by 0.15–0.2 percentage points on average, but there is a considerable probability of a larger reduction at any given moment of time. The treatment of countries with negative inflation rates in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results.

Suggested Citation

  • John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 687-708, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:3:p:687-708
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02069.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02069.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02069.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
    2. Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
    3. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 208-261.
    4. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Seppo Honkapohja & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2007. "EEAG Report on the European Economy 2007," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 1-156, February.
    6. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
    7. Jonas, Jiri, 2006. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 328-345, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Rovelli, 2011. "Two Suggestions for the Future of the Eurozone," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(02), pages 55-62, July.
    2. Calzada, Joan & Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2023. "Conflicting national policies: The creation of the euro and the rebalancing of telecommunications prices," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The case for reforming euro area entry criteria," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 32(2), pages 195-219, December.
    4. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    5. Stojanović Ivana, 2019. "The Impact of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union on the General Price Level of Countries that Joined in the Period from 2004 to 2007," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 57(2), pages 233-255, June.
    6. Adrian Petre, 2016. "The Analysis of the Nominal Convergence in the New Member States of the European Union," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 245-254, September.
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exchange Rate Policies in the Baltic States: From Extreme Inflation to Euro Membership," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 09-18, January.
    8. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht inflation criterion : what is the effect of expansion of the European Union ?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 14 Sep 2007.
    2. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht inflation criterion : what is the effect of expansion of the European Union ?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 14 Sep 2007.
    3. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i::p:687-708 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Calzada, Joan & Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2023. "Conflicting national policies: The creation of the euro and the rebalancing of telecommunications prices," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    5. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    6. Adrian Petre, 2016. "The Analysis of the Nominal Convergence in the New Member States of the European Union," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 245-254, September.
    7. Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
    8. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    9. Vlastimir Vukovic & Aleksandar Zdravkovic, 2011. "The Inflation and Exchange Rate in the Five Balkan Countries from Maastricht Convergence Criteria Prospect," Book Chapters, in: Stefan Bogdan Salej & Dejan Eric & Srdjan Redzepagic & Ivan Stosic (ed.), Contemporary Issues in the Integration Processes of Western Balkan Countries in the European Union, chapter 3, pages 38-55, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    11. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    12. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0294, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Moritz Degler & Karsten Staehr, 2021. "Price and income convergence and the dynamic Penn effect in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 621-635, August.
    14. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
    15. John Lewis, 2011. "How has the Financial Crisis Affected the Eurozone Accession Outlook in Central and Eastern Europe?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. D’Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "The role of the exchange rate regime in the process of real and nominal convergence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-37.
    18. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    19. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    20. Becker, Sascha S. & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation, price dispersion and market integration through the lens of a monetary search model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 624-634.
    21. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:3:p:687-708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-9886 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.