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Aggregation Bias in Estimates of Conditional Conservatism: Theory and Evidence

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  • Manuel Cano-Rodríguez
  • Manuel Núñez-Nickel

Abstract

This paper documents a study about the influence of the aggregation effect on the estimates of models based on the original Basu model – specifically the Ball, Kothari and Nikolaev model (Ball et al., 2013b). We provide an analytical study of the effect, showing that it can produce two biases: an omitted-variable bias and a truncated-sample bias. Using separate proxies for good and bad news for each company and year, we estimate the empirical sign and magnitude of those biases. Our results show that the estimates of conditional conservatism based on regressions of (unexpected) earnings on (unexpected) returns, as in the paper by Ball et al., are contaminated by substantial aggregation bias. More specifically, the aggregation effect causes these models to underestimate good-news timeliness and overestimate bad-news timeliness, thereby overestimating differential timeliness. Moreover, when we use proxies that provide better control for the aggregation effect, the differential timeliness coefficient tends to 0, showing that the influence of conditional conservatism on the returns–earnings relationship is, at best, marginal.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Cano-Rodríguez & Manuel Núñez-Nickel, 2015. "Aggregation Bias in Estimates of Conditional Conservatism: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1-2), pages 51-78, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:42:y:2015:i:1-2:p:51-78
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jbfa.12099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Ryan, 2006. "Identifying Conditional Conservatism," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 511-525.
    2. Collins, Daniel W. & Hribar, Paul & Tian, Xiaoli (Shaolee), 2014. "Cash flow asymmetry: Causes and implications for conditional conservatism research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 173-200.
    3. Banker, Rajiv D. & Basu, Sudipta & Byzalov, Dmitri & Chen, Janice Y.S., 2016. "The confounding effect of cost stickiness on conservatism estimates," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 203-220.
    4. Khan, Mozaffar & Watts, Ross L., 2009. "Estimation and empirical properties of a firm-year measure of accounting conservatism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2-3), pages 132-150, December.
    5. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    6. Pope, PF & Walker, M, 1999. "International differences in the timeliness, conservatism, and classification of earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37, pages 53-87.
    7. Ryan T. Ball & Peter Easton, 2013. "Dissecting Earnings Recognition Timeliness," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 1099-1132, December.
    8. Audrey Hsu & John O'Hanlon & Ken Peasnell, 2012. "The Basu Measure as an Indicator of Conditional Conservatism: Evidence from UK Earnings Components," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 87-113, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xi Li, 2015. "Accounting Conservatism and the Cost of Capital: An International Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5-6), pages 555-582, June.
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    3. Joohyung Ha, 2021. "Bank accounting conservatism and bank loan quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3-4), pages 498-532, March.

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