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The Expected Return and Exercise Time of Merton‐style Real Options

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  • Mark Shackleton
  • Rafal Wojakowski

Abstract

We analyse the rate of return and expected exercise time of Merton‐style options (1973) employed in many real option situations where the possibility of exercise is both perpetual and American in nature. Using risk‐neutral and risk‐adjusted pricing techniques, Merton‐style options are shown to have an expected return that is a constant percentage of the option value and independent of the proximity to the critical exercise boundary. Merton options thus remain at the same point on the Security Market Line, unlike European options whose position and rate of return change dynamically. We also present formulae for the expected time and discounted times to exercise and analyse the dependency of these variables on volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Shackleton & Rafal Wojakowski, 2002. "The Expected Return and Exercise Time of Merton‐style Real Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3‐4), pages 541-555, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:29:y:2002:i:3-4:p:541-555
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00442
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    2. Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    3. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    4. Gross, Marco & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Población, Javier, 2018. "A structural model to assess the impact of bank capitalization changes conditional on a bail-in versus bail-out regime," Working Paper Series 2018, European Central Bank.
    5. Wu, Ming-Cheng, 2011. "Antecedents of patent value using exchange option models: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 81-86, January.
    6. Richard Buttimer & Steven Clark & Steven Ott, 2008. "Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 81-102, January.
    7. Gross, Marco & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Población García, Francisco Javier, 2018. "A structural model to assess the impact of bank capitalization changes conditional on a bail-in versus bail-out regime," Working Paper Series 2181, European Central Bank.
    8. Keswani, Aneel & Shackleton, Mark B., 2006. "How real option disinvestment flexibility augments project NPV," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 240-252, January.
    9. Steffen Brenner & Rainer Schulz & Wolfgang Härdle, 2007. "Realoptionen und Immobilienbewertung: Eine Umsetzungsstudie," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(8), pages 1002-1028, December.
    10. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    11. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2019. "A structural model to assess the impact of bank capitalization changes conditional on a bail-in versus bail-out regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Shackleton, Mark B. & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 2005. "Smooth pasting as rate of return equalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 200-206, November.
    13. Wong, Kit Pong, 2010. "The effects of irreversibility on the timing and intensity of lumpy investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 97-102, January.
    14. Correia, Ricardo & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Población, Javier, 2019. "Anticipating individual bank rescues," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 345-360.
    15. Wong, Kit Pong, 2007. "The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2152-2167, July.
    16. Kit Wong, 2010. "On the neutrality of debt in investment intensity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 335-356, July.
    17. Wong, Kit Pong, 2009. "The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and investment timing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 162-171, January.
    18. Correia, Ricardo & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Población García, Francisco Javier, 2017. "A structural model to study the bail-out process in a bank and its macro-prudential policy implications," Working Paper Series 2110, European Central Bank.

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