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Futures Commitments and Exchange Rate Volatility

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  • Bahram Adrangi
  • Arjun Chatruth

Abstract

It is commonly suggested that certain groups of futures traders, such as speculators and small traders, exacerbate cash market volatility. Empirical research on the subject has been conducted in context of the relationship between price volatility and futures volume or open interest and fails to satisfactorily resolve such an issue. This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate variability and futures trading activity in the context of disaggregated open interest. The data and techniques employed allow for more specific inferences regarding which group of traders contribute to exchange volatility. The results suggest that while ‘typical’ levels of futures commitments are not destabilizing, surges in the level of commitments of large speculators and small traders causes exchange rate volatility. The actual release of the commitment‐of‐traders data, however, has no impact on spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatruth, 1998. "Futures Commitments and Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3‐4), pages 501-520, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:25:y:1998:i:3-4:p:501-520
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00200
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiu-Lan Chang & Ming Fang, 2015. "An Analysis on Trading Behaviors of Currency Futures: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 134-134, May.
    2. Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Causality in Relation to Futures and Cash Prices in the Wheat Market," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-10, June.
    3. Ashish Kumar, 2015. "Impact of Currency Futures on Volatility in Exchange Rate," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 95-108, June.
    4. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    5. Meenakshi Malhotra & Dinesh Kumar Sharma, 2016. "Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(2), pages 132-148, June.
    6. Bruno Thiago Tomio & Guillaume Vallet, 2021. "Carry Trade and Negative Policy Rates in Switzerland : Low-lying fog or storm ?," Post-Print halshs-03669561, HAL.

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