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Exploring the effects of a transition to open access: Insights from a simulation study

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  • Steffen Bernius
  • Matthias Hanauske
  • Berndt Dugall
  • Wolfgang König

Abstract

The Open Access (OA) movement, which postulates gratis and unrestricted online access to publicly funded research findings, has significantly gained momentum in recent years. The two ways of achieving OA are self‐archiving of scientific work by the authors (Green OA) and publishing in OA journals (Gold OA). But there is still no consensus which model should be supported in particular. The aim of this simulation study is to discover mechanisms and predict developments that may lead to specific outcomes of possible market transformation scenarios. It contributes to theories related to OA by substantiating the argument of a citation advantage of OA articles and by visualizing the mechanisms of a journal system collapsing in the long‐term due to the continuation of the serials crisis. The practical contribution of this research stems from the integration of all market players: Decisions regarding potential financial support of OA models can be aligned with our findings, as well as the decision of a publisher to migrate his/her journals to Gold OA. Our results indicate that for scholarly communication in general, a transition to Green OA combined with a certain level of subscription‐based publishing and a migration of few top journals is the most beneficial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Bernius & Matthias Hanauske & Berndt Dugall & Wolfgang König, 2013. "Exploring the effects of a transition to open access: Insights from a simulation study," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 64(4), pages 701-726, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jamist:v:64:y:2013:i:4:p:701-726
    DOI: 10.1002/asi.22772
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Ming & Zhenyue Zhao, 2022. "Rethinking the open access citation advantage: Evidence from the “reverse‐flipping” journals," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 73(11), pages 1608-1620, November.
    2. Sergio Copiello, 2019. "The open access citation premium may depend on the openness and inclusiveness of the indexing database, but the relationship is controversial because it is ambiguous where the open access boundary lie," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(2), pages 995-1018, November.
    3. Jonathan P. Tennant & Harry Crane & Tom Crick & Jacinto Davila & Asura Enkhbayar & Johanna Havemann & Bianca Kramer & Ryan Martin & Paola Masuzzo & Andy Nobes & Curt Rice & Bárbara Rivera-López & Tony, 2019. "Ten Hot Topics around Scholarly Publishing," Publications, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, May.

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