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Link prediction in citation networks

Author

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  • Naoki Shibata
  • Yuya Kajikawa
  • Ichiro Sakata

Abstract

In this article, we build models to predict the existence of citations among papers by formulating link prediction for 5 large‐scale datasets of citation networks. The supervised machine‐learning model is applied with 11 features. As a result, our learner performs very well, with the F1 values of between 0.74 and 0.82. Three features in particular, link‐based Jaccard coefficient difference in betweenness centrality, and cosine similarity of term frequency–inverse document frequency vectors, largely affect the predictions of citations. The results also indicate that different models are required for different types of research areas—research fields with a single issue or research fields with multiple issues. In the case of research fields with multiple issues, there are barriers among research fields because our results indicate that papers tend to be cited in each research field locally. Therefore, one must consider the typology of targeted research areas when building models for link prediction in citation networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoki Shibata & Yuya Kajikawa & Ichiro Sakata, 2012. "Link prediction in citation networks," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(1), pages 78-85, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jamist:v:63:y:2012:i:1:p:78-85
    DOI: 10.1002/asi.21664
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    Cited by:

    1. Yichi Zhang & Zhiliang Dong & Sen Liu & Peixiang Jiang & Cuizhi Zhang & Chao Ding, 2021. "Forecast of International Trade of Lithium Carbonate Products in Importing Countries and Small-Scale Exporting Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Satyaki Roy & Ahmad F. Al Musawi & Preetam Ghosh, 2023. "Inferring links in directed complex networks through feed forward loop motifs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Sasaki, Hajime & Sakata, Ichiro, 2021. "Identifying potential technological spin-offs using hierarchical information in international patent classification," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Akella, Akhil Pandey & Alhoori, Hamed & Kondamudi, Pavan Ravikanth & Freeman, Cole & Zhou, Haiming, 2021. "Early indicators of scientific impact: Predicting citations with altmetrics," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    5. Tofighy, Sajjad & Charkari, Nasrollah Moghadam & Ghaderi, Foad, 2022. "Link prediction in multiplex networks using intralayer probabilistic distance and interlayer co-evolving factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    6. Adilson Vital & Diego R. Amancio, 2022. "A comparative analysis of local similarity metrics and machine learning approaches: application to link prediction in author citation networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(10), pages 6011-6028, October.
    7. Yan, Erjia & Guns, Raf, 2014. "Predicting and recommending collaborations: An author-, institution-, and country-level analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 295-309.
    8. Xiaowen Xi & Jiaqi Wei & Ying Guo & Weiyu Duan, 2022. "Academic collaborations: a recommender framework spanning research interests and network topology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6787-6808, November.
    9. Lingling Zhang & Jing Li & Qiuliu Zhang & Fan Meng & Weili Teng, 2019. "Domain Knowledge-Based Link Prediction in Customer-Product Bipartite Graph for Product Recommendation," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 311-338, January.
    10. Jing Ma & Yaohui Pan & Chih-Yi Su, 2022. "Organization-oriented technology opportunities analysis based on predicting patent networks: a case of Alzheimer’s disease," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5497-5517, September.
    11. Lee, Won Sang & Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Predicting the pattern of technology convergence using big-data technology on large-scale triadic patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 317-329.
    12. Zhi Li & Qinke Peng & Che Liu, 2016. "Two citation-based indicators to measure latent referential value of papers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(3), pages 1299-1313, September.
    13. Wang, Feifei & Dong, Jiaxin & Lu, Wanzhao & Xu, Shuo, 2023. "Collaboration prediction based on multilayer all-author tripartite citation networks: A case study of gene editing," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    14. Yongchang Wei & Lei Chen & Yu Qi & Can Wang & Fei Li & Haorong Wang & Fangyu Chen, 2019. "A Complex Network Method in Criticality Evaluation of Air Quality Standards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    15. Raf Guns & Ronald Rousseau, 2014. "Recommending research collaborations using link prediction and random forest classifiers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(2), pages 1461-1473, November.
    16. Chabowski, Brian R. & Samiee, Saeed, 2023. "A bibliometric examination of the literature on emerging market MNEs as the basis for future research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(PB).
    17. Nazim Choudhury & Shahadat Uddin, 2016. "Time-aware link prediction to explore network effects on temporal knowledge evolution," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 745-776, August.

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