The Discount Rate in Emerging Markets: A Guide

There is considerable controversy about the correct discount (or “hurdle”) rate to use when performing valuations of investments in real assets in emerging markets. The topic is particularly relevant because of the growing need to evaluate privatizations, direct private acquisitions, and greenfield investments in new productive facilities throughout the world. This article argues that the traditional practitioners' approach of building a country risk premium into the discount rate is generally inappropriate, mainly because country risk is not the same for all projects nor is it totally systematic. Moreover, there is no reason for the discount rate to be closely related to the spread on the government bonds of the country concerned. The author also points out that, in determining the appropriate discount rate, what is important is not the segmentation of the market, but the extent to which the investor is locally or globally diversified. The article accordingly reviews a selected group of models for calculating discount rates for both segmented and integrated markets. Adjustments to the valuation procedure are also suggested for cases in which investors are not well diversified or the investment is illiquid.