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Decoupling and Contagion: The Special Case of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

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  • Dirk G. Baur

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis constitutes a special case in the contagion literature with general implications. Perfectly correlated bond markets imply that contagion can only occur if there is a decoupling to lower correlation levels with increased idiosyncratic shocks leading to more severe but less systemic spillovers. This theoretical prediction is fully supported by the empirical analysis. We also show that dynamic coexceedance estimates provide a more robust and more general picture of contagion than correlation‐based tests. Coexceedances identify only one major incidence of contagion that affected five periphery Eurozone countries in May 2010 and coincided with flight to quality from the periphery to the core and the 2010 “flash crash” in US equity markets.

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  • Dirk G. Baur, 2020. "Decoupling and Contagion: The Special Case of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 133-154, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:20:y:2020:i:1:p:133-154
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12220
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndiweni, Zinzile Lorna & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2022. "Contagion or decoupling? Evidence from emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 115170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pang, Raymond Ka-Kay & Granados, Oscar M. & Chhajer, Harsh & Legara, Erika Fille T., 2021. "An analysis of network filtering methods to sovereign bond yields during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    3. contact_cb@yahoo.com. & Simona STAMULE & Iulian Cornel LOLEA, 2021. "The Spillover Effect on the CEE Equity Markets and the Financial Contagion in the Context of Financial Integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 155-170, December.

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