Circular battery production in the EU: Insights from integrating life cycle assessment into system dynamics modeling on recycled content and environmental impacts

The European Union (EU) Battery Regulation aims to establish a circular battery production and sets minimum battery material recycled targets for new batteries from post‐production and post‐consumer waste batteries. However, it is uncertain whether these targets can be met due to dynamic market developments and if their compliance results in environmental benefits. Therefore, this study examines the circular battery production in the EU and its impact on material flows and the environment from a market perspective. We combined a system dynamic market model with process models for battery production and recycling, using prospective life cycle assessment. According to our analysis, the projected amount of post‐consumer waste alone may not meet the specified levels of recycled materials due to long battery lifetimes. Thereby, the targets for cobalt are particularly ambitious, with a gap of between 9.8 and 14.6 percentage points for most scenarios. In the case of reduced battery lifetimes, the achievable recycled content across all materials increases by more than 75% in 2032 and by more than 85% in 2037. The avoidance of post‐production waste leads to 9% lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to recycling with 100% recycling efficiency. Thus, attributable amounts of post‐production waste and unfavorable prolonged use of batteries create misguided incentives to meet legal targets. Additionally, the delay between production and recycling limits the potential for circular production as this depends significantly on market conditions. Our study highlights, that besides recycling, the industry should especially advance production processes including upstream material extraction and refinement to reduce environmental impacts.