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Understanding the future of lithium: Part 2, temporally and spatially resolved life‐cycle assessment modeling

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  • Hanjiro Ambrose
  • Alissa Kendall

Abstract

An array of emerging technologies, from electric vehicles to renewable energy systems, relies on large‐format lithium ion batteries (LIBs). LIBs are a critical enabler of clean energy technologies commonly associated with air pollution and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies. However, LIBs require lithium, and expanding the supply of lithium requires new lithium production capacity, which, in turn, changes the environmental impacts associated with lithium production since different resource types and ore qualities will be exploited. A question of interest is whether this will lead to significant changes in the environmental impacts of primary lithium over time. Part one of this two‐part article series describes the development of a novel resource production model that predicts future lithium demand and production characteristics (e.g., timing, location, and ore type). In this article, part two, the forecast is coupled with anticipatory life‐cycle assessment (LCA) modeling to estimate the environmental impacts of producing battery‐grade lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) each year between 2018 and 2100. The result is a normalized life‐cycle impact intensity for LCE that reflects the changing resource type, quantity, and region of production. Sustained growth in lithium demands through 2100 necessitates extraction of lower grade resources and mineral deposits, especially after 2050. Despite the reliance on lower grade resources and differences in impact intensity for LCE production from each deposit, the LCA results show only small to modest increases in impact, for example, carbon intensity increases from 3.2 kg CO2e/kg LCE in 2020 to 3.3 kg CO2e/kg LCE in 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanjiro Ambrose & Alissa Kendall, 2020. "Understanding the future of lithium: Part 2, temporally and spatially resolved life‐cycle assessment modeling," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(1), pages 90-100, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:90-100
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12942
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaning Zhang & Ziqiang Cao & Chunmei Zhang & Yisong Chen, 2024. "Life Cycle Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Considering Different Vehicle Working Conditions and Battery Degradation Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-29, August.
    2. Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar & Marco Raugei & Bernhard Steubing & Anthony Hartwell & Paul A. Anderson & Oliver Heidrich, 2021. "Life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion battery recycling using pyrometallurgical technologies," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1560-1571, December.
    3. P. James Joyce & Anna Björklund, 2022. "Futura: A new tool for transparent and shareable scenario analysis in prospective life cycle assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(1), pages 134-144, February.

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