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Modeling Corn Ethanol and Climate

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  • Richard J. Plevin

Abstract

New fuel regulations based on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have focused renewed attention on life cycle models of biofuels. The BESS model estimates 25% lower life cycle GHG emissions for corn ethanol than does the well‐known GREET model, which raises questions about which model is more accurate. I develop a life cycle metamodel to compare the GREET and BESS models in detail and to explain why the results from these models diverge. I find two main reasons for the divergence: (1) BESS models a more efficient biorefinery than is modeled in the cases to which its results have been compared, and (2) in several instances BESS fails to properly count upstream emissions. Adjustments to BESS to account for these differences raise the estimated global warming intensity (not including land use change) of the corn ethanol pathway considered in that model from 45 to 61 g CO2e MJ−1. Adjusting GREET to use BESS's biorefinery performance and coproduct credit assumptions reduces the GREET estimate from 64 to 61 g CO2e MJ−1. Although this analysis explains the gap between the two models, both models would be improved with better data on corn production practices and by better treatment of agricultural inputs.

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  • Richard J. Plevin, 2009. "Modeling Corn Ethanol and Climate," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 13(4), pages 495-507, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:13:y:2009:i:4:p:495-507
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00138.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Krohn, Brian J. & Fripp, Matthias, 2012. "A life cycle assessment of biodiesel derived from the “niche filling” energy crop camelina in the USA," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-98.
    2. Rajagopal, D. & Plevin, Richard J., 2013. "Implications of market-mediated emissions and uncertainty for biofuel policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-82.
    3. Horner, Robert M. & Clark, Corrie E., 2013. "Characterizing variability and reducing uncertainty in estimates of solar land use energy intensity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 129-137.
    4. Boies, Adam M. & McFarlane, Dane & Taff, Steven & Watts, Winthrop F. & Kittelson, David B., 2011. "Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7191-7201.
    5. Luo, Yi & Miller, Shelie, 2013. "A game theory analysis of market incentives for US switchgrass ethanol," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 42-56.
    6. James J. Winebrake & James J. Corbett & Fatima Umar & Daniel Yuska, 2019. "Pollution Tradeoffs for Conventional and Natural Gas-Based Marine Fuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Tokunaga, Kanae & Konan, Denise Eby, 2014. "Home grown or imported? Biofuels life cycle GHG emissions in electricity generation and transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-131.

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