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Optimal economic institutions under rational overconfidence, with applications to the choice of exchange rate regime

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  • Carsten K. Nielsen

Abstract

We study the optimal choice of exchange rate regime when agents have beliefs that are mutually inconsistent. A general framework for identifying optimal policies in such situations is proposed and then used to compare fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Agents are assumed to have diverse rational beliefs (rather than rational expectations), implying the prevalence of (rational) overconfidence. We argue that in such a situation, in comparing economic institutions, one should employ the concept of ex‐post optimality rather than that of Pareto optimality. Fixing the exchange rate is ex‐post optimal because it eliminates mistaken actions (based on mistaken beliefs).

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  • Carsten K. Nielsen, 2009. "Optimal economic institutions under rational overconfidence, with applications to the choice of exchange rate regime," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(4), pages 375-407, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:5:y:2009:i:4:p:375-407
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2009.00115.x
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    3. Giuseppina Malerba & Marta Spreafico, 2014. "The rich and the poor in the EU and the Great Recession: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
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    6. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    7. Motolese, Maurizio & Nakata, Hiroyuki, 2024. "Are macroeconomic indices fool's gold?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 240-260.
    8. Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco, 2014. "Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account," MPRA Paper 53002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2012. "Market's SINS and the European Welfare State: theory and empirical evidences," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0060, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    10. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    11. John S L McCombie & Marta Spreafico, 2013. "Can only democracies enhance “Human Development”? Evidence from the Former Soviet Countries," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0066, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Rieger, Jörg, 2014. "Financial Transaction Tax and Financial Market Stability with Diverse Beliefs," Working Papers 0563, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    13. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2013. "Why Italy's saving rate became (so) low?," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0063, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Maurizio MOTOLESE & NAKATA Hiroyuki, 2016. "Endogenous Fluctuations and Social Welfare under Credit Constraints and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion papers 16082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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