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The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

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  • Shawn Bushway
  • Philip J. Cook
  • Matthew Phillips

Abstract

This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime.
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Suggested Citation

  • Shawn Bushway & Philip J. Cook & Matthew Phillips, 2012. "The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 436-446, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:13:y:2012:i:4:p:436-446
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    Cited by:

    1. Asif Islam, 2014. "Economic growth and crime against small and medium sized enterprises in developing economies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 677-695, October.
    2. Bortoletto, Gianluca, 2022. "The link between migratory background and crime perceptions. A repeated cross-sectional analysis with household data," MPRA Paper 112488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Leighton Vaughan Williams & Chunping Liu & Hannah Gerrard, 2019. "How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2019/03, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    4. Alfredo Paloyo & Colin Vance & Matthias Vorell, 2014. "Local determinants of crime," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(21), pages 625-658.
    5. Sarah A. Burgard & Jennifer A. Ailshire & Lucie Kalousova, 2013. "The Great Recession and Health," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 650(1), pages 194-213, November.
    6. Marcus Box & Karl Gratzer & Xiang Lin, 2020. "Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 437-457, February.
    7. Pengfei Jia & King Yoong Lim, 2021. "The stabilization role of police spending in a neo‐Keynesian economy with credit market imperfections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 103-125, February.

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