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Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

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  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan‐Christoph Rülke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which forecasts of the growth rate of money supply correlate in a proportional way with forecasts of the inflation rate. We also found that forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and forecasts of the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun’s law. Evidence of a systematic link between forecasts of the inflation rate and forecasts of the unemployment rate, however, is not strong.
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  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan‐Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(1), pages 103-115, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:13:y:2012:i:1:p:103-115
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    Cited by:

    1. Behrens, Christoph & Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian, 2018. "Testing the optimality of inflation forecasts under flexible loss with random forests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 270-277.
    2. Antal, Miklós, 2014. "Green goals and full employment: Are they compatible?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 276-286.
    3. Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2014. "Expectations and the quantity equation - evidence from Eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 329-335, January.
    4. Oberst, Christian & Oelgemöller, Jens, 2013. "Economic Growth and Regional Labor Market Development in German Regions: Okun’s Law in a Spatial Context," FCN Working Papers 5/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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