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The Forex Forward Puzzle: The Career Risk Hypothesis

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  • Fang Liu
  • Piet Sercu

Abstract

We conjecture that the forward puzzle may reflect career risks. When professional investors observe public danger signals about a currency, they require a premium for holding it. We find evidence of this in Exchange Rate Mechanism rates. As deep discounts do signal danger, we next specify nonlinear variants of the Fama regression to capture this risk. We also decompose the forward premium into a long‐memory trend and short‐term component. We find empirical evidence for a career risk premium; risk is in fact dominant in the trend component while the short‐term component loads more on expectations. All confidence intervals are calculated via Monte Carlo.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Liu & Piet Sercu, 2009. "The Forex Forward Puzzle: The Career Risk Hypothesis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 371-404, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:44:y:2009:i:3:p:371-404
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6288.2009.00222.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    3. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    4. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1778z416, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    5. Fang Liu & Piet Sercu, 2009. "The Forward Puzzle: The Roles of Exchange Rate Regime and Base Currency Strength," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1055-1074, July.
    6. Chen, Zilin & Gang, Jianhua & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Stock returns and carry trades," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

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