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Adverse‐Selection Costs and the Probability of Information‐Based Trading

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  • Kee H. Chung
  • Mingsheng Li

Abstract

Prior studies offer various empirical models to decompose the observed bid‐ask spread into the adverse‐selection and transitory (order‐processing and inventory‐holding) components. There is limited evidence, however, on whether the spread components estimated from these models indeed measure what they purport to measure. In this study, we show that the estimates of the adverse‐selection component given by these models are positively and significantly related to the probability of information‐based trading (PIN), after controlling for the endogeneity of the PIN and other stock attributes. These results provide direct empirical support for the spread component models examined in the present study.

Suggested Citation

  • Kee H. Chung & Mingsheng Li, 2003. "Adverse‐Selection Costs and the Probability of Information‐Based Trading," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 257-272, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:38:y:2003:i:2:p:257-272
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6288.00045
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    1. David Abad & Antonio Rubia, 2005. "Modelos De Estimacion De La Probabilidad De Negociacion Informada: Una Comparacion Metodologica En El Mercado Español," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Mingsheng Li & Thomas H. McInish & Udomsak Wongchoti, 2005. "Asymmetric Information in the IPO Aftermarket," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 131-153, May.
    3. Owens, John P., 2005. "A market microstructure model with random overlapping information asymmetries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 59-66, June.
    4. David Abad & Antonio Rubia, 2004. "Estimating The Probability Of Informed Trading: Further Evidence From An Order-Driven Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-38, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    5. Gbenga Ibikunle & Davide Mare & Yuxin Sun, 2020. "The paradoxical effects of market fragmentation on adverse selection risk and market efficiency," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 1439-1461, September.
    6. Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana & Christine X. Jiang & Nareerat Taechapiroontong & Robert A. Wood, 2004. "The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure on Information Asymmetry and Trading: An Intraday Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 549-577, November.
    7. Chia, Yee-Ee & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2020. "More shareholders, higher liquidity? Evidence from an emerging stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Anthony Tay & Christopher Ting & Yiu Kuen Tse & Mitch Warachka, 2007. "Modeling Transaction Data of Trade Direction and Estimation of Probability of Informed Trading," Finance Working Papers 22483, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Attig, Najah & Fong, Wai-Ming & Gadhoum, Yoser & Lang, Larry H.P., 2006. "Effects of large shareholding on information asymmetry and stock liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2875-2892, October.
    10. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2005. "Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 11-35, February.
    11. Lim, Kian-Ping & Thian, Tze-Chung & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2015. "Corporate Shareholdings and the Liquidity of Malaysian Stocks: Investor Heterogeneity, Trading Account Types and the Underlying Channels," MPRA Paper 67602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Malay Dey & B. Radhakrishna, 2015. "Informed trading, institutional trading, and spread," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 288-307, April.
    13. Lim, Kian-Ping & Thian, Tze-Chung & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2017. "Investor heterogeneity, trading account types and competing liquidity channels for Malaysian stocks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 220-234.
    14. Qianyun Huang & Terrance R. Skantz, 2016. "The informativeness of pro forma and street earnings: an examination of information asymmetry around earnings announcements," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 198-250, March.
    15. Jackson, David, 2013. "Estimating PIN for firms with high levels of trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 116-120.
    16. Chung, Kee H. & Li, Mingsheng & McInish, Thomas H., 2005. "Information-based trading, price impact of trades, and trade autocorrelation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1645-1669, July.
    17. Li, Wei-Xuan & French, Joseph J. & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng, 2017. "Informed trading in S&P index options? Evidence from the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 40-65.
    18. Ibikunle, Gbenga, 2018. "Trading places: Price leadership and the competition for order flow," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-200.

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