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Optimal Asset Allocation over the Business Cycle

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  • Brocato, Joe
  • Steed, Steve

Abstract

Utilizing a broadly diversified portfolio of nine equity and debt assets, we show our portfolio's in-sample Markowitz return/risk profile considerably improved by keying asset proportions to cyclical changes in economic activity. For comparative purposes, we use the same assets in a hypothetical buy-and-hold benchmark portfolio. We find the variance/covariance structure of our portfolio to be considerably altered by the phase of the business cycle, with the diversification benefits enjoyed during expansions substantially diluted during recessions. Thus, cyclical reallocation appears to be more important in maintaining Markowitz efficiency during recessions vis-a-vis expansions. In the latter case, we find expansion reallocation producing a 3.53% increase in our portfolio's return-to-risk ratio (relative to a buy-and-hold position), while for recessions optimal reallocation leads to a 79.14% increase. Copyright 1998 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Brocato, Joe & Steed, Steve, 1998. "Optimal Asset Allocation over the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 129-148, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:33:y:1998:i:3:p:129-48
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Bessler & Julian Holler & Philipp Kurmann, 2012. "Hedge funds and optimal asset allocation: Bayesian expectations and spanning tests," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 109-141, March.
    2. Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2003. "New Evidence on Optimal Asset Allocation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 435-454, August.
    3. Joe Brocato & Kenneth Smith, 2012. "Sudden equity price declines and the flight-to-safety phenomenon: additional evidence using daily data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 712-727, July.
    4. Kenneth Smith & Joe Brocato, 2010. "Applying the Inclan-Tsiao breakpoint algorithm in the search for the flight-to-safety phenomenon," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 371-380.
    5. Mann, Thomas & Atra, Robert J. & Dowen, Richard, 2004. "U.S. monetary policy indicators and international stock returns: 1970-2001," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 543-558.
    6. Hsu, Pao-Peng & Liao, Szu-Lang, 2012. "The portfolio strategy and hedging: A spectrum perspective on mean–variance theory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 129-140.
    7. Liang, Kuo-Yuan & Yen, Chen-Hui, 2014. "Dissecting the cycles: An intermarket investigation and its implications to portfolio reallocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-51.

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