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Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?

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  • Darrat, Ali F
  • Brocato, Joe

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of the U.S. stock market as it pertains to a number of major macrofinance variables that theory and empirical evidence suggest are important in rational stock pricing decisions. A multivariate vector autoregressive analysis is used to draw efficiency inferences. The estimated factor pricings are consistent with theory and previous empirical research. In addition, these results indicate that the stock market may be inefficient with respect to the federal budget deficit variable. Similar apparent inefficiency evidence is obtained for the term structure and risk premium variables. The authors cannot reject the efficiency hypothesis for industrial production, inflation, and base money. Using indirect causality tests, the authors find plausible intermediate information linkages connecting variables in the system. The term structure and risk premia variables consistently appear important as intermediate conduits through which information about other factors impact stock returns. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Darrat, Ali F & Brocato, Joe, 1994. "Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 49-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:29:y:1994:i:1:p:49-75
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    Cited by:

    1. A. F. Darrat & R. N. Dickens, 1999. "On the interrelationships among real, monetary, and financial variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 289-293.
    2. Wu, Ying, 2001. "Exchange rates, stock prices, and money markets: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-458.
    3. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    4. Klaus Grobys, 2013. "An empirical analysis of changes of the impact of federal budget deficits on stock market returns: evidence from the US economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 921-924, June.
    5. Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2013. "The Impact of Demand and Supply Shocks on US Hospitality Index Returns," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 349-371, April.
    6. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    7. Unro Lee, 1997. "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Policies: New Evidence from Pacific Basin Countries," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 273-289, December.
    8. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    9. Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and US Hospitality Stock Returns," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 833-852, December.
    10. Ali Darrat, 2002. "On Budget Deficits And Interest Rates: Another Look At The Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 19-29.
    11. Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.

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