IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finmgt/v48y2019i2p505-536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expected versus Ex Post Profitability in the Cross‐Section of Industry Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Detzel
  • Philipp Schaberl
  • Jack Strauss

Abstract

Asset pricing theory predicts a positive cross‐sectional relation between expected profitability and expected returns. However, empirical studies typically use lagged ex post profitability as a proxy for expected profitability. In this article, we use out‐of‐sample combination forecasts to estimate expected industry‐level operating profit, gross profit, operating cash flow, and net income. We then construct real‐time industry‐rotation strategies based on high and low expected profitability. For each measure except gross profit, these predicted‐profitability strategies earn significant alpha net of transaction costs and outperform strategies based on ex post profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Detzel & Philipp Schaberl & Jack Strauss, 2019. "Expected versus Ex Post Profitability in the Cross‐Section of Industry Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(2), pages 505-536, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:2:p:505-536
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12231
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/fima.12231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Tao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Industry-level media tone and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 59-77.
    2. Tao Huang & Xueyong Zhang, 2022. "Media coverage of industry and the cross‐section of stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1107-1141, April.
    3. Barroso, Pedro & Detzel, Andrew, 2021. "Do limits to arbitrage explain the benefits of volatility-managed portfolios?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 744-767.
    4. Huber, Daniel & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian & Preissler, Fabian, 2023. "International factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:2:p:505-536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.