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Covid‐19 will Change the Agri‐food System – but how?

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  • Krijn Poppe

Abstract

The Covid‐19 pandemic has highlighted vulnerabilities in the agri‐food system and wider society. The elderly, in particular, have been overrepresented in intensive care units. The resulting economic crisis and accelerating geopolitical shifts will change the agri‐food system, but it is unclear how this will play out in detail. Two factors are important to consider: will societal priorities change and will the state become more interventionist? We examine these uncertainties via four scenarios from a Dutch perspective. ‘Business as usual’ is realistic if the crises are short and manageable. ‘Government Control’ is more state interventionist, after several decades of neo‐liberalism, with a greater focus on the economy and employment as the agri‐food system is confronted with a long recession. ‘Regional Communities’ is where there is a long period of echo‐pandemics, in which a flourishing community spirit, the attention to nature and a healthy living environment with healthy food are permanent and short supply chains and multifunctional agriculture gain ground. In ‘Green High‐Tech Transformation’, the most extreme scenario, the state and technical innovation take on a much larger role in society and our views on our lifestyle change. These trends reinforce each other and the government is tasked with creating a new economy. The scenarios are not predictions but can be used to structure thought and discussion on the way forward. La pandémie de Covid‐19 a mis en évidence les vulnérabilités du système agroalimentaire et de la société en général. Les personnes âgées, en particulier, sont surreprésentées dans les unités de soins intensifs. La crise économique résultant de la pandémie et l'accélération des changements géopolitiques vont changer le système agroalimentaire, mais on ne sait pas comment exactement. Il est important de considérer deux questions : les priorités sociétales changeront‐elles et l’État deviendra‐t‐il plus interventionniste ? A l'aide de quatre scénarios, nous examinons ces incertitudes d'un point de vue néerlandais. Le « statu quo » est réaliste si les crises sont courtes et gérables. Le scénario « contrôle gouvernemental » envisage un État plus interventionniste après plusieurs décennies de néolibéralisme, avec une plus grande attention portée sur l’économie et l'emploi, le système agroalimentaire étant confronté à une longue récession. Le scénarios « communautés régionales » envisage une longue période d’écho‐pandémies dans laquelle un esprit communautaire florissant, l'attention à la nature et un environnement de vie sain avec des aliments sains se pérennisent, et les chaînes d'approvisionnement courtes et l'agriculture multifonctionnelle gagnent du terrain. Dans le scénario le plus extrême de « Transformation verte par les technologies de pointe verte », l’État et l'innovation technique jouent un rôle beaucoup plus important dans la société et nos opinions sur notre mode de vie changent. Ces tendances se renforcent mutuellement et le gouvernement est chargé de créer une nouvelle économie. Les scénarios ne sont pas des prévisions mais structurent la réflexion et la discussion sur la voie à suivre. Die Covid‐19‐Pandemie hat die Schwachstellen im Agrar‐ und Lebensmittelsystem und in der Gesellschaft insgesamt aufgezeigt. Vor allem ältere Menschen waren auf den Intensivstationen überrepräsentiert. Die aus der Pandemie resultierende Wirtschaftskrise und die sich beschleunigenden geopolitischen Verschiebungen werden das Agrar‐ und Lebensmittelsystem verändern. Dabei ist noch unklar, wie sich diese im Einzelnen auswirken werden. Zwei Faktoren sollten in dieser Hinsicht Berücksichtigung finden: Werden sich die gesellschaftlichen Prioritäten ändern und wird der Staat stärker eingreifen? Wir untersuchen diese Unsicherheitsfaktoren anhand von vier Szenarien aus niederländischer Sicht. „Business as usual” ist realistisch, wenn die Krisen kurz und überschaubar sind. Die „Regierungskontrolle” wird nach mehreren Jahrzehnten Neoliberalismus zunehmend staatlicher und interventionistischer werden. Hierbei werden Wirtschaft und Beschäftigung stärker im Fokus stehen, da das Agrar‐ und Lebensmittelsystem mit einer langen Rezession konfrontiert sein wird. „Regionale Gemeinschaften” werden dort entstehen, wo es einen lang andauernden Zeitraum mit Echo‐Pandemien gibt. In den „Regionalen Gemeinschaften” werden ein blühender Gemeinschaftssinn, Achtung der Natur und ein gesundes Lebensumfeld mit gesunden Nahrungsmitteln von Dauer sein. Dazu gewinnen kurze Lieferketten und eine multifunktionale Landwirtschaft an Boden. Bei der „Grünen High‐Tech‐Transformation”, dem extremsten Szenario, nehmen der Staat und technische Innovationen eine viel größere Rolle in der Gesellschaft ein – und ebenfalls in Bezug auf unsere Ansichten über die Änderung unseres Lebensstils. Diese Trends verstärken sich gegenseitig, wobei der Regierung die Aufgabe zukommt, eine neue Wirtschaftsform zu entwickeln. Die genannten Szenarien stellen keine Vorhersagen dar, sondern strukturieren Gedanken und Diskussionen beim weiteren Vorgehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Krijn Poppe, 2020. "Covid‐19 will Change the Agri‐food System – but how?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 20-25, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eurcho:v:19:y:2020:i:3:p:20-25
    DOI: 10.1111/1746-692X.12276
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    1. repec:oup:erevae:v:44:y:2017:i:4:p:540-566. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Oliver E. Williamson, 2000. "The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 595-613, September.
    3. Olivier De Schutter, 2017. "The political economy of food systems reform," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 705-731.
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    1. Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich & Finger, Robert & El Benni, Nadja & Gocht, Alexander & Sørensen, Claus Aage Grøn & Gusset, Markus & Pfeifer, Catherine & Poppe, Krijn & Regan, Áine & Rose, David Christian & Wolf, 2022. "Scenarios for European agricultural policymaking in the era of digitalisation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

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