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News sentiment and sovereign credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Lara Cathcart
  • Nina M. Gotthelf
  • Matthias Uhl
  • Yining Shi

Abstract

We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induces a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure, whereas its impact on the default component leads to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lara Cathcart & Nina M. Gotthelf & Matthias Uhl & Yining Shi, 2020. "News sentiment and sovereign credit risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(2), pages 261-287, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:26:y:2020:i:2:p:261-287
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12219
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    Cited by:

    1. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2023. "Understanding mispricing in the travel and leisure industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Hoang, Daniel & Wiegratz, Kevin, 2022. "Machine learning methods in finance: Recent applications and prospects," Working Paper Series in Economics 158, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Durand, Robert B. & Khuu, Joyce & Smales, Lee A., 2023. "Lost in translation. When sentiment metrics for one market are derived from two different languages," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    5. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Economic news and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Financial news and CDS spreads," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    7. Giulio Gariano & Gianluca Viggiano, 2022. "Press news and social media in credit risk assessment: the experience of Banca d’Italia’s In-house Credit Assessment System," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 24, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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